Anthony Pompliano's Recent LinkedIn Posts

Bitcoin went from a penny to $126,000 in less than two decades. Now it's down 48% from the cycle top, and the skeptics are doing victory laps. Here's why they're wrong and when I'd start buying: First, context matters. In prior bear markets, bitcoin fell 85% or more. A 48% drawdown at this stage is actually in line with 2018's cycle, which had fallen about 50% at the same point. Not great. But not unusual either. So why is it falling so hard right now? 4 reasons: - 4-year cycle believers started selling in September/October 2025 - Long-term holders used $100K as their psychological exit - Wall Street financialization dampened volatility and deterred retail - Bitcoin is signaling a liquidity and deflation problem That last one is the most important. Global liquidity has peaked. The next trough isn't expected until 2027. Add in tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics — that's 5 simultaneous deflationary headwinds. Bitcoin is pricing it all in right now. But here's the other side of the trade. Historically, buying at a 50% drawdown produces a 90% win rate over 1 year with median returns of +95%. At -70%? 100% win rate. Every single time. Invest wisely. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

I just hosted Bitcoin Investor Week in NYC. Thousands of investors attended to hear from more than 45 speakers or meet new people at the various side events and happy hours Here are my 10 takeaways from the event: 1. Bitcoin investors have been here before 2. Institutions have arrived 3. Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are on a collision course 4. Deflation is a big risk 5. Financial advisors are holding or adding bitcoin to portfolios 6. Institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs are not selling 7. Stablecoins are not going away 8. No one wants to call "bottom" yet 9. All eyes are on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 10. Nothing stops this train ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Buy Now, Pay Later is a fundamental shift in the business model of credit. To better understand what is happening, I recently sat down with Michael Linford, the COO of Affirm. Three key takeaways: 1. The Credit Card Trap. Banks want you to carry a balance and pay interest on interest. Michael shared how his mother ended up with $50,000 in debt because the system was engineered to keep her there. 2. Merchant-Led Financing. Affirm shifts the cost of credit from the consumer to the merchant. This allows for 0% APR loans with no late fees or compounding interest. 3. Agentic Commerce. As AI agents handle our shopping, they will optimize for the best math. They will bypass high-APR cards for transparent installment loans. There is 1.3 trillion dollars in revolving credit card debt in the US. We are fixing a broken system. Check out our full interview: https://lnkd.in/ek5uFFpy

A short-term oil price shock is not going to create sky high inflation in America. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and relax. Deflation is still a much bigger concern for the US economy. I explained to CNBC's Morgan Brennan this morning.

The WSJ recently ran a piece titled "They're Rich but Not Famous—and They're Suddenly Everywhere." Most people read that headline and think anecdote. I read it and saw a structural signal. The "stealth rich" are Americans worth tens or hundreds of millions who didn't make Forbes' cover. They built wealth the unglamorous way: owning businesses, accumulating assets, and letting compounding do the work over decades. This is not a one-off edge case. It is a pattern repeating across the country at a scale that the mainstream narrative is still underestimating. More Americans are becoming wealthy at younger ages than at any point in history. The investor class is expanding. The tools available to operators and business owners today are better than any prior generation has ever had access to. The consensus view is still treating this as a temporary phenomenon. I think that's the wrong frame entirely. The structural shift is durable. And the people who understand it early will be positioned best for what comes next. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Meet Ben Cera. He started a $6 million company with no employees. No team. No office. No co-founder. Just AI agents running 24 hours a day, handling engineering, marketing, customer support, and competitor research on his behalf. His total cost to build it? Roughly $50K. Mostly his own salary. AI subscriptions ran him $600 a month. This is not a story about a well-funded startup with a big team and years of runway. This is one person, a MacBook, and the discipline to figure it out. Ben is living proof that the economics of building a company have fundamentally changed. The question is no longer how many people you can hire. It is how well you can leverage the tools that already exist. I sat down with Ben to break down exactly how he built it, what the technology stack looks like, and where he thinks this is all going. Full interview is available here: https://lnkd.in/egi2gx22 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The "Donroe Doctrine" is reshaping every major asset class right now. It's Trump's reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The big idea behind this policy is that the US is asserting American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere, including a specific aim to counter influences from China, Russia, and Iran. The energy market impact is direct. Venezuela used to send 50 million barrels of oil to China annually. That flow is being rerouted. WTI dropped from $75 to $68. Long-term projections show another 10-15% decline. But this has caused some uncertainty. - VIX averaged 18 this period, up from 14 in late 2025. - The semiconductor ETF SOXX is already down 3% on fears of Chinese retaliation. - Tariffs on Mexico and Brazil have raised US household costs 2-3%. My take is that geopolitics is outweighing fundamentals in the short term. You have to keep your head on a swivel. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The world looks genuinely chaotic right now. War has broken out in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oil prices are pushing higher. Private credit cracks are spreading fear across Wall Street. Apollo's John Zito just issued a warning about private equity valuations. And investors are piling into AI stocks anyway. This isn't irrational. It's actually a logical conclusion once you work through it. A war in Iran has minimal direct impact on software companies. Could energy costs for data centers tick up? Sure. But these are corporations printing cash at rates that make higher electricity bills a rounding error. Meanwhile, Meta is reportedly cutting 20% of its workforce and the stock jumped 2%. Nvidia's CEO announced their newest chip is expected to generate $1 trillion in revenue by end of 2027. Tesla and Micron both rallied on AI infrastructure announcements. The market doesn't care about your headlines. It cares about earnings power. Understanding the difference between noise and signal is the most valuable skill an investor can develop right now. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The private sector no longer trusts government economic data. So instead of complaining, they built something better. Here's what two private market solutions are now telling us about the economy, and why it matters more than anything the BLS publishes. First is Truflation. It has a 97% correlation to CPI — but delivers the data weeks earlier. What is Truflation saying right now? CPI will fall to 0.9-1.3% by March 2026. The Wall Street consensus estimate for Q1 2026 is 2.59%. That's a gap of nearly 1 full percentage point. One of these is badly wrong. Second is Kalshi. The Federal Reserve just published a paper on it. Key finding: Kalshi has correctly predicted every Fed rate decision since 2022. Fed funds futures, which is wall street's go-to tool, perfomed worse with statistical significance. What's the takeaway? The private sector stopped trusting the government. Then they built faster, more accurate alternatives. That's capitalism working exactly as intended. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Trump just gave the longest State of the Union in modern history. I don't care about the politics. I care about the data. Here's what the numbers actually say about the US economy right now: Truflation, which you know is my preferred real-time inflation tracker, shows inflation dropped from 2.3% to 0.9% over the last 12 months. The BLS still reports 2.4%. The gap between official data and real-time data tells you something important. Deflation is already showing up in specific sectors: - Home prices: -1.5% YoY - Breakfast commodity index: substantially lower over 12 months - Gas: from $6+ peak to $1.85 in some markets Here's the thing both sides get partially right: Yes, prices are coming down relative to last year. Yes, consumers are still feeling the pain of the last 5 years of price hikes. Both things are true at the same time. But for investors, none of that history matters. The only thing that matters is what happens NEXT. And the current risk is deflation. Deflation triggers money printing. Money printing means lower rates. You know what asset wins in that environment. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The United States is on a generational run to start the year. We sent Delta Force down to Venezuela to grab Nicolas Maduro in the middle of the night, we helped the Mexican military take out the world’s most important cartel leader, and then we bombed Iran over the weekend to successfully eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader. Now I have been to war, so I understand how ugly these situations can get. I am praying for the safety of every American servicemember, along with the innocent citizens of Iran. Things appear to be quite chaotic and uncertain at the moment, so hopefully this conflict will be over sooner rather than later. This decision to bomb Iran carries a lot of significance for the President and his administration. Not only are American lives at risk, with at least four American military members reportedly already having been killed, but the President risks losing the support of the American people if things don’t go well on a short timeline. The response from the American people after the first bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or the capture of Maduro, was generally positive because the United States was swift in victory. As the saying goes, history is written by the winners, so the President and his team must win. With that said, my job is to help investors understand what is happening in the world and how those developments could impact their investment portfolio. So here is how the current chaos in the Middle East is likely to affect each asset class. Keep reading 👇 ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Investors are scratching their heads right now. Negative data says panic. Positive data says opportunity. Here's what the numbers actually show: The bad: 12.7% of credit card loans are 90+ days delinquent. Second highest in recorded history. AI is accelerating job losses in exposed industries. The gap between AI-resistant and AI-exposed payrolls is widening fast. The good: Labor force participation for prime-age workers (25-54) is at a 25-year high, and nearly an 80-year high. And we're seeing the broadest stock market rally in history. Not just the Mag 7. My take? Both things will be true at the same time. Fear porn will dominate headlines. Opportunity will quietly compound for those paying attention. I would never bet against America or our assets. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Any job who puts three letters after their name will ultimately be automated away.

Everyone said AI was going to destroy engineering jobs. They were wrong. Here's what the data actually shows: Lenny Rachitsky just dropped a new labor report. Engineering job openings are at their highest levels in over 3 years. 67,000 openings globally. 26,000 in the United States alone. That 3-year mark is not a coincidence. That's right around when ChatGPT launched. More AI. More engineering jobs. Not fewer. We don't yet know whether AI created these roles or whether they would have existed anyway. But we do know one thing... since the start of this year, the acceleration has been getting faster, not slower. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Gold, bonds, and bitcoin are all moving right now — and none of them are doing what the textbook says they should. Here's what the three truth tellers of financial markets are actually telling us: First lets talk about Bonds. During conflict, Treasuries normally rally. Investors flee to safety, yields drop, prices rise. That's not happening. Yields are UP. Treasuries have been one of the worst-performing major assets since February 28th. Stagflation risk from spiking oil is why. Gold is down roughly 13% since the war started. The mainstream explanation is fear of a Fed rate hike. I don't buy it. My read: a liquidity crisis is underway in the Eastern world. The same groups that aggressively bought gold over the last two years are now selling it for cash. Bitcoin is up 34% against gold since the war started 23 days ago. No sovereign risk. No airplane is required to move it. Fully decentralized. The world is recognizing what that's worth in a conflict environment. My expectation until the war ends: oil higher, bonds and gold under pressure, bitcoin outperforms. And if Trump's cease-fire comments Friday night are any indication, markets will rip the moment it's over. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Ray Dalio went on the All-In Podcast and made his bear case against Bitcoin. I respect Dalio. He's one of the greatest macro thinkers alive. But his Bitcoin analysis is frozen in 2017. Here's where he's right and where the data says otherwise: Where Dalio is right: - Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset, not a fear hedge - Gold has 5,000 years of Lindy effect vs Bitcoin's 17 - The Fed and ECB have not bought Bitcoin His debt cycle framework is correct. Hard assets win in this environment Where the data disagrees with him: - $95 billion in Bitcoin ETF AUM - 193 public companies added Bitcoin to their balance sheets - Hashrate crossed 1 Zettahash - Sovereign adoption is accelerating, not slowing The "small controlled market" argument doesn't hold up anymore. The real irony is that Dalio's own framework — $38.5T national debt, 6% of GDP deficit, Fed resuming QE — is the best argument for Bitcoin that exists. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Three months ago, I was preparing for headwinds in bitcoin. I've completely changed my mind. Here's why: The war in Iran flipped the script. Oil is up 42% in one month — sitting at $94.66 right now. That short-term inflationary shock has no relief in sight. At the same time: National debt up $3 trillion since January. The Fed is expanding the balance sheet again. Truflation's real-time inflation metric has nearly doubled in weeks. Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the world to global liquidity. When countries print money to fund conflict, bitcoin benefits. And if a recession hits? The Fed prints trillions and cuts to 0% again. Bitcoin was built for that moment. I'm not predicting that Bitcoin will never dip below $65K again. But I'm glad it's the core holding in my portfolio. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The Strait of Hormuz closure is one of those events that looks regional on a map but is global in its economic consequences. Here's the full picture: Iran has attacked multiple ships in the strait, including a projectile strike on a Thai-flagged vessel and vessels striking underwater mines. Countries like India are now negotiating bilaterally with Iran just to secure passage for their ships. Oil moved from $77 to nearly $120 per barrel, then cratered back to $77, and now sits around $92 — all within five days. That kind of price whiplash creates both short-term investor uncertainty and long-term inflation risk. Real-time inflation data from Truflation shows readings starting to tick upward. Gas prices confirm it: up 62 cents per gallon since February 28th. If the strait stays closed for months, the inflationary impact compounds through energy, shipping, and ultimately consumer prices on nearly everything. The four asset buckets that historically perform in inflationary environments: - Real assets: commodities, precious metals, real estate - Fixed income: TIPS, I-bonds, floating rate bonds - Equities: pricing power companies, energy, materials, dividend growers - Alternatives: infrastructure, farmland, timber, bitcoin I'm still more focused on the long-term deflationary forces including AI, robotics, tariff-driven supply chain shifts. But a prolonged Hormuz closure would change that calculus. I'll change my mind if the data demands it. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

This guy is 23 years old and manages a few billion dollars. His name is Leopold Aschenbrenner. He worked at OpenAI on the Super Alignment team before he was fired. Then he wrote a 165-page essay called Situational Awareness that went massively viral. That essay was so good that he raised hundreds of millions of dollars for a new hedge fund. Then he made a call that almost no one expected. He went all in on AI infrastructure. Not Nvidia. Not the obvious names. Power generation. Data center real estate. Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI compute. Sometimes investing more than 20% of the fund in a single stock. His top holding right now is Bloom Energy — a company that generates electricity on-site from natural gas. Is he the next great investor? ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Most assets have been getting hit hard since the Iran conflict began 15 days ago. - Nasdaq down 2%. - S&P down 3%. - Gold down 3.5%. - TLT down nearly 5%. - Bitcoin is up 10%. That single data point is worth thinking about carefully. Bitcoin has spent months trading in tight correlation with software stocks. Institutional adoption drove that. When tech sold off, bitcoin sold off. When tech rallied, bitcoin followed. Then the bombs dropped on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed. Markets went into panic mode. And bitcoin went the other direction. What you are seeing is the world remembering what bitcoin actually is. A borderless asset. Decentralized. Operating completely outside the traditional financial system. The chaos hedge is doing exactly what bitcoin investors always said it would do. If this outperformance holds, the sophisticated investors who sat on the sidelines questioning bitcoin's longevity and volatility are going to start paying very close attention. Performance is a hell of a drug. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

The private credit market is currently sitting on nearly $13 trillion, which is essentially “marking its own homework.” I recently sat down with Nick Nemeth, a citizen investigative journalist who used AI and public filings to uncover what might be the largest pool of self-marked capital in global financial history. Most people think of private credit as a safe, low-volatility alternative to the public markets. The reality is that the volatility isn’t gone; it is just being laundered through smooth accounting. Here is the breakdown of the situation: 1. The Sharp Ratio Red Flag. Nick identified a fund reporting a Sharp ratio of 3.75. For context, Bernie Madoff was caught because his returns were too smooth, and even he only fudged a Sharp ratio of 3.5. When a portfolio of leveraged loans to private equity-backed companies claims to have better risk-adjusted returns than high-frequency trading, you have to ask questions. 2. Phantom Recovery Marks. In one specific example, a fund marked a defunct website URL at 42 cents on the dollar. Nick’s analysis shows the business has been functionally eliminated by AI and Google. There is no scenario where that asset services its debt, yet the paper marks remains high to keep the internal rate of return looking “pristine” for investors. 3. Your Retirement is the Collateral. This isn’t just a problem for billionaires. This capital is being sourced from pension funds and insurance companies. If these “fortress balance sheets” are actually levered 20 to 50 times on their equity and the underlying loans start to non-accrue, the fallout hits the average retiree and the US taxpayer. We are seeing a repeat of the 2008 incentive structures, but this time it is happening in the shadows of private markets. LinkedIn won’t let me upload the full video because it’s over 15 minutes. If you want to watch the full interview, click here: https://lnkd.in/eqCPDpqC

I recently sat down with Peter H. Diamandis to discuss what he calls the "supersonic tsunami" of technological change. Peter is one of the most forward-thinking leaders in AI and longevity, and our conversation hit on exactly how the next five years will fundamentally rewrite the economic playbook. Here are a few of the core takeaways from our discussion: 1. The Demonetization of Intelligence We are rapidly moving toward a world where "Einstein in your pocket" is a reality for eight billion people. Intelligence is being democratized and demonetized, which shifts the human role from grinding out work to supervising AI agents. 2. From UBI to Universal High Income (UHI) While many fear job displacement, Peter argues that we are heading toward Universal High Income. As AI and robotics collapse the cost of healthcare, education, and energy, the "cost of living" as we know it will effectively vanish. 3. The Multi-Trillion Dollar Longevity Industry Healthcare is currently "sick care." Peter explains why the next massive investment frontier is longevity—adding decades of healthy life to our spans. He poses a simple question for high-net-worth individuals: What would you pay for 30 extra years of health? For most, the answer is everything. 4. Investing in Scarcity Amidst Abundance We discussed the paradox of modern investing. In an era when digital goods are abundant, physical constraints such as energy, data centers, and specific commodities like Bitcoin command massive premiums. He emphasizes that the most important asset you can develop right now isn't a specific skill, but a curiosity-driven mindset. The speed of change is quickly accelerating from years to months to weeks. You can either surf this tsunami or be crushed by it. Full interview is available here: https://lnkd.in/eb8B2T-q ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Inject this straight into my veins. 🇺🇸

Jack Dorsey just laid off more than 4,000 employees at Block. Nearly half the company. And he blamed AI. The internet ran with it. Wrong take. Here's what actually happened. Between December 2019 and December 2022, Block tripled its headcount from 3,900 to 12,500. That's not AI disruption. That's COVID over-hiring. Dorsey even admitted it: "yes we over-hired during covid." Look at the comps: - Robinhood: 2,500 employees, $70B market cap. - Coinbase: 4,500 employees, $50B market cap. - Block: just cut to 6,000, $30B market cap. Block was bloated. Simple as that. But here's the real concern for investors: the AI excuse is going to spread. CEOs now have a politically acceptable reason to do layoffs they were going to do anyway. Expect more announcements framed around AI productivity. My advice: watch your portfolio closely over the next 12 months. Volatility is coming as the market figures this out. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on finance, business, & technology!

Join us LIVE on LinkedIn as we host the second session of Bitcoin Investor Week GA Day 2 at 2:30pm ET!